July 14, 2025
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2 min read
Nifty F&O Strategy: Use Bear Put Spread to Profit from Correction
Daily Technical Breakdown
On Friday, the Nifty 50 index opened with a pronounced gap down and closed decisively below its downward-sloping trend channel, forming a large bearish candlestick on the daily chart. This technical break signals sustained downside pressure and raises the probability of further short-term declines in Nifty’s price action.
Key Moving Averages and Support Levels
The index settled at 25,149, trading below critical moving averages—most notably the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 25,265, which also serves as the midline of the Bollinger Bands. With the next support coming at the 40-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of 25,018, traders should watch for a potential bounce or further erosion of these levels in the coming sessions.
Momentum Indicators
The daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 48.75, trending downward and positioned below its signal line. This momentum indicator reinforces the bearish sentiment in the market. “Additionally, Nifty broke below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of 25,212, measured from the June 13 low (24,473) to the June 30 high (25,669), which further validates the ongoing corrective phase,” notes Preeti K Chabra, Founder of Trade Delta.
Weekly and Monthly Outlook
On the weekly timeframe, Nifty has formed a lower high–lower low pattern, confirming profit-taking at elevated levels. The weekly RSI has declined to 58.6, breaching its rising trendline and signaling early loss of bullish momentum. Despite this short-term weakness, the monthly chart remains structurally positive, as Nifty has posted higher highs and higher lows for four consecutive months, suggesting that the current pullback is a healthy correction within a broader uptrend.
Derivatives Insight
From a derivatives perspective, the unwinding of in‑the‑money (ITM) put options points to growing bearish sentiment among options traders. This behavior aligns with the technical breakdown and suggests that downside risks are being actively hedged or speculated upon.
Recommended Strategy: Bear Put Spread
Given the technical setup and rising bearish bias, Preeti K Chabra recommends deploying a Bear Put Spread on Nifty. This options strategy—buying an ITM put at a higher strike and selling an OTM put at a lower strike with the same expiry—allows traders to capitalize on an expected decline while limiting maximum risk to the net premium paid. By partially offsetting the cost of the long put with the short put premium, the Bear Put Spread offers a defined-risk approach to play a correction in the Nifty 50 index.
July 14, 2025
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4 min read
U.S. Stocks Dip as Trump Escalates Trade War; CPI, Earnings in Focus
U.S. stock indices fell on Monday as escalating trade tensions sparked investor uncertainty. The decline followed President Donald Trump's announcement of 30% tariffs on imports from Mexico and the European Union, intensifying the ongoing global trade war and shaking investor confidence across Wall Street.
As of 09:35 ET (13:35 GMT), the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped by 80 points (0.2%), the S&P 500 Index declined by 10 points (0.1%), and the NASDAQ Composite Index edged down by 12 points (0.1%). The modest yet broad-based decline reflected mounting concerns over international trade instability.
Trump Announces 30% Tariffs on Key U.S. Trading Partners
Over the weekend, President Trump issued formal letters announcing new trade tariffs, imposing a 30% import duty on a range of goods from Mexico and the European Union. This latest move follows earlier tariffs levied on Japan, South Korea, Canada, and Brazil, and an aggressive 50% tariff on copper imports, further fueling global economic tensions.
These new tariffs will become effective on August 1, leaving the affected nations under pressure to finalize trade agreements with Washington in under three weeks. Trump originally planned the deadline for July 9 but extended it to give room for negotiations. Talks are reportedly ongoing with South Korea and the European Union, both striving to avoid steep trade penalties.
According to recent data, U.S. customs duties collected reached a record $113.3 billion in the first nine months of fiscal 2025. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated that the figure could rise to $300 billion by December, marking a significant source of revenue for the federal government amid fiscal tightening.
Investors Shift Focus to June CPI Data and Q2 Earnings Season
While geopolitical tensions dominate headlines, Wall Street's focus is also turning toward key economic indicators and Q2 corporate earnings. The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for June is scheduled for release on Tuesday, and it is expected to play a crucial role in shaping investor expectations for future Federal Reserve interest rate decisions.
Economists project a 0.3% month-over-month increase in CPI, up from 0.1% in May, with year-over-year inflation rising to 2.6% from 2.4%. The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate between 4.25% and 4.5% during its June meeting. While July rate cuts remain unlikely, futures markets suggest a potential interest rate cut in September, contingent on inflation trends.
This week also marks the official start of the U.S. earnings season, led by major banks such as JPMorgan Chase (NYSE: JPM), Bank of America (NYSE: BAC), and Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC). Investors are eager to assess earnings reports for signs of economic resilience or strain. Reports from blue-chip companies like Netflix (NASDAQ: NFLX), Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ), and 3M (NYSE: MMM) are also expected.
Fastenal (NASDAQ: FAST) shares rose after the company exceeded second-quarter profit and revenue expectations, benefiting from strong demand for industrial safety supplies. Meanwhile, Kenvue (NYSE: KVUE) saw a stock uptick following the sudden resignation of CEO Thibaut Mongon, signaling ongoing boardroom shake-ups amid activist investor pressure.
Oil Prices Rise as Russian Sanctions Loom
Global crude oil prices gained ground Monday as traders reacted to potential U.S. sanctions on Russia, which could disrupt the global oil supply. At 09:35 ET, Brent crude futures increased by 0.3% to $70.59 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rose 0.4% to $68.70 per barrel.
President Trump is expected to make a major statement on Russia later today, expressing dissatisfaction with Russian President Vladimir Putin over limited progress in ending the Ukraine conflict. A bipartisan bill proposing fresh U.S. sanctions on Russia is advancing through Congress but still requires White House approval.
Simultaneously, European Union officials are nearing agreement on a new package of sanctions against Russia, which may include a lower price cap on Russian oil exports, further intensifying pressure on global energy markets.
July 9, 2025
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3 min read
U.S. Stock Futures Flat as Markets Digest Trump Tariff Delay and Await Fed Minutes
Investors paused to weigh the impact of President Trump’s latest tariff announcements—most notably on copper—and the Federal Reserve’s forthcoming minutes before making any decisive market moves. While Dow futures held steady and both S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures edged down by 0.1%, traders found relief in the White House’s decision to defer new tariffs until August 1, tempering immediate downside risks. With today’s muted U.S. stock futures reflecting cautious sentiment, all eyes now turn to the Fed minutes for fresh insights into interest‑rate policy, inflation outlooks, and the central bank’s assessment of economic growth—factors that will ultimately guide the next wave of market direction.
President Trump confirmed at Tuesday’s cabinet meeting that the August 1 tariff deadline is “not 100% firm” but will not be pushed back further, even as he continues negotiations with the EU and China. He also warned of a potential 50% levy on imported copper—a critical input for electric vehicles, military hardware, and power–grid infrastructure—and hinted at additional tariffs on pharmaceuticals and semiconductors. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent noted that these measures have already generated $100 billion in revenue this year, with projections reaching $300 billion by year‑end, funds that could help offset the cost of Trump’s recently enacted multi‑trillion‑dollar tax‑cut and spending package.
Investors are now focused on the Federal Reserve’s June meeting minutes, searching for clues on the trajectory of interest‑rate policy as U.S. borrowing costs remain at the 4.25%–4.50% range. Policymakers endorsed a “wait‑and‑see” stance to allow the full impact of Trump’s tariffs to materialize, a position underscored by Chair Jerome Powell’s recent remarks that, absent trade uncertainty, rate cuts might have already begun. Market participants continue to price in two rate reductions by year‑end—potentially kicking off in September and again in December—yet the outlook is clouded by renewed political pressure from President Trump, who has publicly criticized Powell and urged his resignation in favor of a more dovish Fed leader.
Kevin Hassett, a longtime White House economic adviser, has emerged as a “serious contender” to succeed Jerome Powell as Federal Reserve Chair, according to a Wall Street Journal report. Hassett, who has built a close rapport with President Trump, reportedly met with him at least twice in June to discuss the role—positioning him ahead of former Fed governor Kevin Warsh in the president’s shortlist. If tapped, Hassett’s appointment could signal a sharper shift toward looser monetary policy, aligning the Fed more closely with the White House’s growth‑focused agenda.
July 8, 2025
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1 min read
Retail Derivatives Bloodbath: Over ₹1.05 Lakh Crore Lost in FY25, SEBI Investigates Jane Street
SEBI Investigates Jane Street as Majority of Traders Suffer Heavy Losses :
Indian retail investors reportedly lost ₹1.05 lakh crore in FY25 through derivatives trading, as revealed in SEBI's latest findings. This sharp rise in losses aligns with SEBI’s ongoing probe into U.S.-based trading firm Jane Street, which allegedly profited ₹36,500 crore through manipulative practices.
The number of retail traders in the F&O segment surged to 96 lakh in FY25 from 86.3 lakh the previous year. Meanwhile, average losses per trader climbed by 27%, from ₹86,728 to ₹1,10,069.
In comparison, FY22 saw 42.7 lakh traders and total losses of ₹40,824 crore—highlighting a troubling three-year trend of ballooning retail participation and worsening outcomes.
SEBI emphasized that about 91% of F&O traders continue to face losses, a ratio unchanged from earlier studies, reinforcing concerns about unsustainable risk-taking by retail participants.
